Designing Your Product Vision
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This document provides an introduction to scenario planning as a foresight methodology to help make better decisions. Scenario planning involves listing driving forces, ranking their importance, creating a scenario grid with different outcomes, and imagining possible future worlds. It is used to identify risks and opportunities and stimulate innovation. The goal is not to predict the future but provide structure to think about possible long-term implications. The document outlines the steps to scenario planning and provides an example scenario grid around issues of personal data and privacy in the year 2020. It concludes by encouraging the reader to try scenario planning.
Designing Your Product Vision
- 1. @caweena #future Designing your product vision: Introduction to Scenario Planning Carina Ngai Product Design Lead Inflection, LLC Redwood City, CA ngai.carina@gmail.com @caweena #future june 20th , 2013
- 2. @caweena #future Scenario planning Study of the future
- 3. What is Scenario Planning? ๏ฟฝ Foresight methodology to help us make better decisions today ๏ฟฝ Helps identify risks & opportunities, inform strategy, development, and stimulate innovations ๏ฟฝ Mostly been used in a business context for strategic planning, and risk management
- 4. What is Scenario Planning? ๏ฟฝ Foresight methodology to help us make better decisions today ๏ฟฝ Helps identify risks & opportunities, inform strategy, development, and stimulate innovations ๏ฟฝ Mostly been used in a business context for strategic planning, and risk management ๏ฟฝ NOT indended to be predictions or visions of desired futures ๏ฟฝ Provides structure to allow us to start thinking about the longer term future, and the possible implications
- 5. What is Scenario Planning? ๏ฟฝ Ask โWhat if?โ instead of โWhat is?โ ๏ฟฝ Itโs about options, not actions.
- 6. HOW TO: 1. List Driving Forces 2. Rank importance 3. Make a Scenario Grid 4. Imagine the possible future worlds 5. Brainstorm implications and actions to: harry moore from: findorf farm dear harry, hereโs an early bird notice that new produce is available. come along and pick up a chicken! findorf farm shares this is to certify that harry moore owns 100 shares for sale peer-to-peer bankers first-time buyers peer-to-peer mortgagescommunity farm Source: Forum for the future, Sainsburyโs Illustration: Ian Dera World 1 World 2 World 3 World 4
- 7. + DESIGN 1. Find patterns in 4 worlds World 1 World 2 World 3 World 4
- 8. + DESIGN 1. Find patterns in 4 worlds 2. Create a Vision NOW North Star
- 9. + DESIGN 1. Find patterns in 4 worlds 2. Create a Vision 3. Design a vision prototype 4. Build a product roadmap NOW North Star
- 10. When is the best time to do Scenario Planning?
- 11. VISUAL EXPLORATIONS INSIGHTS Brand Anology Exercise+ RESEARCH CONCEPT DEV FINAL OUTPUTBRAND DEV Analysis Public Persona Social Connector Selective Sharer Survey Interviews Secondary Research PERSONA Identityโs Branding Iterate & Refine Future TrendsScenario Planning Workshops + Sketching Sessions+ 5 Design Principles Generate โWhat-ifโ Exercise Scenarios Storyboard Workflow Sample Wireframes VISION PROTOTYPE New Feature Ideas Identityโs long term vision Evaluate & Rank Creative Leap + Persona Development 2 / 6
- 12. Ready to give it a try?
- 13. @caweena #future What is the Future of PERSONAL DATA?
- 14. @caweena #future Trends & Facts 1. By 2020, global volume of digital data will increase more than 40 folds. 2. Law and government is catching up with technology loopholes. 3. Ubiquitous computing & Internet of Things. 4. Privacy is reactive. 5. People are willing to share more only when value outweight risks. 6. Emerging contextually sensitive approach to privacy. 7. โCreep factorโ. Nuances of privacy continue to evolve.
- 15. @caweena #future 1. By 2020, global volume of digital data will increase more than 40 folds. 2. Law and government is catching up with technology loopholes. 3. Ubiquitous computing & Internet of Things. 4. Privacy is reactive. 5. People are willing to share more only when value outweight risks. 6. Emerging contextually sensitive approach to privacy. 7. โCreep factorโ. Nuances of privacy continue to evolve. Trends & Facts How Target Figured Out A Teen Girl Was Pregnant Before Her Father Did -Forbes 02/2012
- 16. @caweena #future 1. By 2020, global volume of digital data will increase more than 40 folds. 2. Law and government is catching up with technology loopholes. 3. Ubiquitous computing & Internet of Things. 4. Privacy is reactive. 5. People are willing to share more only when value outweight risks. 6. Emerging contextually sensitive approach to privacy. 7. โCreep factorโ. Nuances of privacy continue to evolve. Trends & Facts Girls Around Me: An App Takes Creepy to a New Level -NYTimes 03/2012
- 17. @caweena #future List Driving Forces: 1. Social 2. Technological 3. Economic 4. Environmental 5. Political
- 18. @caweena #future Themes: 1. Digital Tattoo 2. Data Ownership 3. Government regulations on Privacy 4. State of Economy 5. Internet of Things 6. Sustainability 7. Social Media Domination / Fragmentation
- 19. @caweena #future Most Critical Uncertainties: 1. Digital Tattoo 2. Data Ownership 3. Government regulations on Privacy 4. State of Economy 5. Internet of Things 6. Sustainability 7. Social Media Domination / Fragmentation
- 20. Economic Depression Economic prosperity Youโre an open book for life Complete control of your Personal Data Personal Data in 2020 ?
- 21. In World #3 Itโs about Big Brother Business Insecurity, suspicion Real world connections Big business and corporations Rumors Itโs NOT about Online credibility Efficiency Startups ?
- 22. Grassroots movement No trust Face to face interaction wins
- 23. More people are struggling for survival due to the depressed economy. More crime, fraud and terrorism appear because of desperation and the easiness to hide oneโs trace. The efficiency of crime solving goes down since police force has to return to a street-based investigation. Only big companies with ample resources can start a mass data driven business, such as selling peopleโs data. People are increasingly dissatisfied with the government and resent big corporations. Grassroot level protests start to grow, demanding a more efficient government, lower crime rate, and more jobs. Rumors can potentially lead to massive chaos. The level of trust goes down: Education will be dominated by traditional schooling system. Online dating is dying, people seek more traditional personal connections to get to know each other. Street smart people has a higher chance to prosper with their connections. In sleeping volcano...
- 24. What will you see on a newspaper headline? What kind of business will thrive?
- 25. What will you see on a newspaper headline? What kind of business will thrive?
- 26. FEEL: Suspicious, dirt digging, gossips, isolated OPPORTUNITIES: Data bartering, Data Pawn shop, Negotiator, Face-2-face, On-foot verification, Data = currency
- 27. Economic Depression Economic prosperity Youโre an open book for life Complete control of your Personal Data World 2 Anarchic Data Highway Personal Data in 2020
- 28. World #2 Anarchic Data Highway Itโs about Government efficiency Filter bubble Private Internets Individualism Emerging new business types Itโs NOT about Anonymity Common codes of conduct ?
- 30. Government has the resource to leverage public data to focus on longer term projects: Several privacy protection acts are passed to regulate companiesโ access and usage of personal data, and prevent people abusing others by their online record. Scientific research like space programs and disease studies are funded. The prosperity of economy stimulates ample opportunities in all fields, the ease of living encourage people to express their uniqueness, flaunting their lifestyles & quirks. Private Internet is established for people to share information within a selective circle. Business such as image makeover consultancy emerges, guiding people in not only how to make amends for past imperfections, but also how to shape their own special online presence. Also parents will try to create a โgolden plateโ online presence for their children from the first day. Meanwhile, companies have the resource to invest heavily on data-mining and profiling for marketing, which might lead to extreme filter bubbles for consumers. In anarchic data highway...
- 32. World 3 Sleeping Volcano World 4 Dual Face Nation Economic Depression Economic prosperity Youโre an open book for life Complete control of your Personal Data Personal Data in 2020 World 2 Anarchic Data Highway World 1 Luddite Fallacy
- 33. Economic Depression Economic prosperity Youโre an open book for life Complete control of your Personal Data New Currencies World 3 Personal Data World 4 Honesty World 2 Recognition World 1 Security
- 35. EASY CONSENT AND PAINLESS FORM FILLING Jamie sends out a consent request to the candidate Rita. Rita authorizes the background check over her mobile device. She then logs into LinkedIn to pre-fill the form.
- 36. education how to read types of report monthly emails mobile contextual message PS, GH trigger curate stories archive prompt public records public records publicprivate self-branded nudge / trigger edit / fix manage add services add personal data share top 10 things about me System Diagram Verified user generated content will be feeding into our system. This will give our company a unique advantage, because we will then have an authentic workflow that can be leveraged by Product A and Product B. **Personal Data = voluntary user-generated data such as photo, video, narratives Disclaimer: Content is modified for confidentiality purpose Self-branded billboard empower users to select their top 10 news. The new system will provide ways for user to see, fix, educate, and interact with the central library. ** top 10 news billboard library
- 37. New feature wireframes Find connection Matthew Carter Robert Hu Chad Howell Rick Find connection David Johnson Eugene Stevens Linda Jackson Jacob Whitman Malinda Harvey Chad Howell Brad Simons Amy Butler Laura Croft Rachel Bolton Mary Poppins Elizabeth Gaskell David Liu 2008 2013 Circle of Influence Rick Find connection Nick CarlsonLinda Jackson Ben Chapman Erik Stolterman Matthew Carter Robert Hu Malinda Harvey Chad Howell Mary Jackson Amy Butler Martin Neal Elizabeth Gaskell Julia Shelton David Johnson Rick David Johnson Eugene Stevens Linda Jackson Jacob Whitman Malinda Harvey Brad Simons Amy Butler Rachel Bolton Elizabeth Gaskell 2008 2013 LEFT: Rick added Facebook, MySpace, and Twitter to iD. He can choose to add more social media accounts on the top left. In 2008, this graph shows his circle of influence, with Linda, David and Eugene being his closest friends. This is calculated by the frequency of intereactions etc. 2008 RIGHT: By simply dragging the slider through the timeline towards 2013, you can see how his circle of influence has changed, with Linda still being his closest friend, and Nick being the new best friend. This may be something Rick hasnโt thought about, and he may want to re-engage with his old friends 2013
- 38. New feature wireframes 2008 2013 Job hunting Recruiters Graduation Living in the bay area: food & entertainment Interviewing with Google Hourly Salary Converter Alumni networking event Gamersโ guild meetup Intel Inteviews My resume San Francisco Bay area crime map and 6 more Gamersโguild meetup Gamersโguild meetup every Thursday night, starting 6pm. We play videos games, card games, and board gamges. Next weekโs theme will be fighting games. Bring your controller or arcade stick and join us for a round of Guilty Gear. 17 9 12 Eric Davis 5 Dept Chair Mom Whatโs happening 2008 2013 Recruiters Graduation Living in the bay area: food & entertainment Interviewing with Google Hourly Salary Converter Alumni networking event Gamersโ guild meetup My resume San Francisco Homes for sale School district ratings Coachella Bay area crime map Mortgage Rate Puppy training classes Trulia loan calculator Annual job review IKEA family member and 6 more Gamersโguild meetup Gamersโguild meetup every Thursday night, starting 6pm. We play videos games, card games, and board gamges. Next weekโs theme will be fighting games. Bring your controller or arcade stick and join us for a round of Guilty Gear. 17 Real Estate Agent 23 9 12 Dept Chair Mom LEFT: From the email account Rick used to sign up, iD is able to analyze the data within. In 2008, this graph shows his topic of interest during that time. Each rectangle size correponds to the frequency of topics appeared in the email. Rick had just graduated from college, and was actively looking for jobs. Hover over the squares for more details. 2008 RIGHT: By simply dragging the slider through the timeline towards 2013, you can see how his topic of interest has changed. Rick is now actively looking for a house in San Francisco. The biggest rectangle size shows the frequency of interaction with his real estate agent. 2013
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- 40. @caweena #future Design helps us better understand future possibilities in order to make better decisions today