AR Presentation - Team THEIA
- 1. Winter School 2017 Daniela Nossa Díaz Nicolò Bonacina Mahsa Bohlooli Zamani Edoardo Marcandelli Daniele Ramirez Davide Renda Martina Rontini Marina Berardi (Leader) Marco Boretto Stefano Gabetti Melissa Latella THEIA
- 2. Is a merging of virtual world with real environment that provides users with completely new technological experiences TITOLO AUGMENTED REALITY
- 3. REALITY AUGMENTED A Universe of Opportunities
- 4. HOW DID WE GET TO AR? TITOLO
- 5. PAST THEIA 1886 Augmented Reality in literature (i.e., Eva Futura of Villiers de l’Isle-Adam) 1968 Sutherland built the first head-mounted three dimensional display
- 7. PRESENT THEIA 2016 The Pokemon-Go phenomenon 2009 First use for advertisement (i.e.,Toyota, Lego) and development of first apps for smartphone
- 8. THEIA Who are the main actors? How are they involved in the innovation process? Basic Research Potential Market Distribute and market Redesign and produce Detailed design and test Invent and produce analytic design Scientific Knowledge Universities Public research centers Incumbent enterprises Start-ups APPLIED RESEARCH PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT Chain-link model Stephen J. Kline, 1985
- 9. BASIC RESEARCH THEIA Sensorial InterfaceVirtual Object Real Environment Both to generate virtual inputs and to process information from the environment (e.g.: pose estimation algorithms) in real-time. Produce accurate sensors (microphones, gyroscopes, accelerometers, cameras) and displays Understand how the brain works in order to provide the most immersive experience COMPUTER SCIENCE HW DEVELOPMENT NEUROSCIENCE Basic Research Potential Market Distribute and market Redesign and produce Detailed design and test Invent and produce analytic design Scientific Knowledge
- 10. LEADING ACTORS THEIA Research field: AR systems in presence of spatial uncertainty Research field: 3D-objects tracking, pose estimation Research field: Medical application (AR training SW, Augmented imaging systems) Research field: Hybrid inertial and vision tracking for AR Basic Research Potential Market Distribute and market Redesign and produce Detailed design and test Invent and produce analytic design Scientific Knowledge
- 11. SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGETHEIA Private Enterprises Universities R&D Centers Government Public Companies INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY It plays a key role in connecting the main actors in the innovation process. Basic Research Potential Market Distribute and market Redesign and produce Detailed design and test Invent and produce analytic design Scientific Knowledge
- 12. INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY PROTECTION THEIA APPROACHES WHY? Industrial secrecy No dominant model yet No main competitor yet Collaborative community “The better everyone does, the better everyone does” Knowledge Learning Curve Lock-in of customers High cost in shifting to AR technology during the early phase New inventions Distinctive identification of Software Original creative Software PatentsIntellectual Property Rights Trade marks Copyright No dominant design yetRegistered Design Currently used
- 13. APPLIED RESEARCH THEIA MIT's New Media Lab, USA Hololens in collaboration with Microsoft University of Canterbury, New Zealand Holoplanets University of Tokyo, Japan Telexistence enabling virtual human ubiquity UNIVERSITIES Basic Research Potential Market Distribute and market Redesign and produce Detailed design and test Invent and produce analytic design Scientific Knowledge
- 14. APPLIED RESEARCH THEIA Basic Research Potential Market Distribute and market Redesign and produce Detailed design and test Invent and produce analytic design Scientific Knowledge and Google glasses 3D hand tracking, 6 DOF head position tracking and monitoring. Smart glasses for industrial applications SDKs, cloud services and coding support for AG applications. IT software integration for companies in the AG field. ENTERPRISES
- 15. VOICEOFCOSTUMEREXPLOITATION ARuserevaluationthroughuser-basedexperiments(GabbardandSwan)THEIA _VirtualEnvironmentjournalsandconferences i.e.,IEEEconferencessuchas2017willbeheldinLos Angeles,CaliforniaonMarch18-22,2017 _Human Factors in Computing Systems (CHI, computer human interation) conference i.e.,WorkshoponAmplificationandAugmentationofHuman PerceptionandSIGGRAPH _CommentsmadebyusersofspecificobservedARsystems i.e.,WorldWideWebsearchesforAR _ExperiencesusingARsystems i.e.,PokémonGo,Virtualtryon,etc.
- 16. PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTTHEIA Educational and Entertainment User Friendly Network information Portable/wearable Real Interaction Wearable Virtual try on Real time information Social interaction Accessable data Simple training Geolocalization Geolocalization Reliable data Real time information Fast flow of information Real time information Accessible modelling design CUSTOMERS’ REQUIREMENTS E-Commerce Scientific Research Army Applications Industrial Applications Basic Research Potential Market Distribute and market Redesign and produce Detailed design and test Invent and produce analytic design Scientific Knowledge
- 17. THEIA RESPONSES TO CUSTOMER NEEDS Eyeglasses Contactlenses Opticalprojectionsystems Touchandspeechrecognition Softwaredevelopmentkits(SDK) ARMarkupLanguage(ARML) SpatialAR GPS View of historic sites (i.e. High Street Stories App) View of not yet existing sights (i.e. large scale construction in-situ projects) Head-mounted displays for digitalization of real movements in a virtual space (i.e. Microsoft console “kinect”) Use of smartglasses for training doctors Cancer surgeon using a virtual reality camera (2016, Royal London Hospital) Heads-up-on-the-move technology (mapping of soldier’s field of vision, ARC4) Manteinance and customer service activities (i.e. Mitsubishi electric’s meView) Virtual fitting rooms to make virtual try-on (BY TryLive brand, Acep TryLive) Phonebook catalogues for mobile strategies (IKEA’s AR app)
- 18. THEIA APPLICATIONINCOMMERCE:IKEA’sARApp Phonebookcatalogueasmobilestrategy Value for the CUSTOMERS Enjoying the in-store shopping Convenience of the online environment Value for the BUSINESS Stock cost savings Employees’ time savings Reduced risk of products being damaged
- 19. AUGMENTED REALITY IMPACTS References THEIA Positive impacts Negative impacts _ Less cell phone, get our hands back _ Improve the quality of life _ Communication will be challenging and rewarding, more effective, productive, and enjoyable _ Improvement and expanding the educational system _ Experience a reality that is based on personal needs and desires _ Expand the abilities of retailers _ Explosion of the marketing and advertising _ Navigate without taking their eyes off the road _ Huge impact is the medical field (Reducing the chances of medical problems arising after surgery is performed) _ Allows to go beyond physical boundaries (more than tradi- tional social media) _ Potential in socials skills training for people with autistic spectrum disorders _ Find a common ground across differences in age, culture, and linguistic orientation _ Malware attack by cyber criminals that are looking to capitalize on new technology _ Development of scams that will victimize the innocent users _ Psychological impact (virtual vs reality) _ We’ll be annoyed by constant advertisement _ Provoke laziness and decrease the interpersonal relationships which is inescapable aspect of social life in the formation and maintenance of real life (Biocca and Levy 1995) _ Privacy easily Breached _ Huge impact on the young minds of teenagers who are already susceptible to rapid changes in behavior and beliefs _ Effects that augmented reality can cause on the brain as well as physical effects; especially in teens and children, whose brains are still developing _ Separates more the haves from the have-nots _ Could lead to low self-esteem, feelings of worthlessness and in- significance, even self-destructive acts (Cartwright 1994)
- 20. MAIN PROBLEMS TO OVERCOME THEIA FRAGMENTATION OF THE ECOSYSTEM: Many variation in hardware, operating system and coding LACK OF STANDARDS: Standards in the data transmission, connection and algo- rithms and modularity in components TECHNICAL BARRIERS: Large field of view lenses, advance 3D real time rendering, tracking and -display and user-objetcs interaction FINANCIAL BARRIERS: Cost of device and computer hardware CULTURAL BARRIERS: Social and privacy issues related to tracking a always-on mass device OPERATIONAL RISKS: Challenge of introducing new hardware in a not mature market and securing data on the devices.
- 21. IMPACTS ON EMPLOYMENT THEIA Creating a more linked work environment (cooperation between workers and workers-employers) Changes in the employer-employee relationship Changes in the need of employees Test candidates Faster and cheaper training Trying new equipments without risks Training to emergency situation protocol
- 22. LEGAL ISSUES THEIA Laws are not clear about AR legal issues Technology move faster than legislative processes Commerce of personal data Privacy i.e., placing a virtual characters in a private propriety Private property Difficulty in deciding who is the owner of an idea Intellectual property rights Consequences of using wrong data sets Data quality and reliability of technologies i.e., unfair competition Improper
- 24. AR GRANTED PATENTS in 2016 THEIA Analysis based on a field of 1229 patents Data extracted from www.patentinspiration.com Northern America 497 Europe 138 Israel 4 China, Hong Kong, Taiwan 353 Japan, South Korea 220 Australia 17
- 26. AR SOFTWARE PATENTS OVER TIME Patent inspiration analisys THEIA 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2001 Growing trend of the acquirement from 2012 until now OVERALL
- 27. AR SOFTWARE PATENTS OVER TIME THEIA BY APPLICATION CATEGORIES Two dominant patented products: Manipulating 3D models for computer graphics and input arrangements for transferring data. 15 10 5
- 28. Performance/costs Sales Number of firms Role of innovation t t t t Abernathy-Utterback Model High rate of innovation and large range of technical solutions i.e. Support of depth-sensing cameras Markerless AR Thermal touch Sensor fusion 2017 Immature technology, high costs and prices i.e. Google Glasses - 1.800 $ SDK Basic - 3.000 $ SDK Pro - 5.500 $ Current sales releted only to innovators AR worldwide revenues in 2016: 5.200.000.000 $ AR worldwide revenue forecasts for 2020: 162.000.000.000 $ (International Data Corporation) High and keeps growing number of firms NOT A DOMINANT DESIGN YET! FLUID PHASE THEIA
- 29. Performance / costs t 2017 In the current scenario incumbent companies may be overcome by incoming ones in a few years. Incoming companies in AR The definition of a new technological paradigm disruptes traditional technologies like computers and mobile devices that have reached their saturation phase. Incumbent companies in mobile devices DAVID vs GOLIATH THEIA
- 30. CASE STUDY: Metaio THEIA 2003 Foundation of Metaio in Munich, Germany, grown out of an internal project within Volkswagen 2014 Thermal Touch: infrared technology to turn any surface into an interactive experience 2005 Release of the first end-consumer AR application called KPS Click & Design 2015 Acquired by Apple for 30 millions Euros 2010 to 2012 Presentation of the first commercial 2-D Markerless Feature tracking application for print and television on a consumer mobile device
- 31. STATE OF ART: Nowadays technology THEIA 3D-Object Tracking algorithm Digitally rendered object Metaio Suite iOS application RealEnvironment V irtualworld Motion Recognition SDK Metaio Creator MEMS Sensors Cloud Storage
- 32. FUTURE TREND: Improvements THEIA 3D Object Tracking algorithm Digital Object Motion Recognition Virtual Reality goggles In-depth cameras MEMS sensors VirtualWorld RealEnvironment Metaio suites directly mounted on portable devices
- 33. EMERGING STANDARDS THEIA D'fusion Studio: Supported on Microsoft Windows, Mac OS X, Linux, Android and iOS. Markerless recognition of 2D images and tracking of 3D objects. Supported on smartphones and smart glasses. Vuforia Augmented Reality SDK: Supported on Android and iOS. Recognition of planar images, markers or 3D objects. API in C++, Java, Objective-C and .NET languages and code can be written using XCode, Android Studio and Unity. Supported on many VR Viewers and smart glasses. Metaio: Originally developed for iOS and Android. Markerless tracking. Supported on smartphones. Wikitude: Developed for iOS and Android. Markerless and location-based tracking, HTML augmentations. Plug-ins in C++, Java or Objective-C and can communicate with JavaScript API. Supported on smartphones and smart glasses.
- 34. Performance / costs t 20172015 Apple mobile technology «Augmented reality is that big as the smartphone (...) the smartphone is for everyone. (...) AR is not a product per se. (...) is a key software component that would enhance hardware rather than a device or product (...)» Tim Cook In 2015: iPhone users 700.000.000 iPhone market share 37% Metaio users 150.000 Bonding the new AR technology to its established role in the market of smart devices, Apple is likely going to define the future technological paradigm. Based on the data from www.statista.com
- 35. WHERE CAN WE GO?
- 36. THE FUTURE OF AR THEIA Combining AR to IoT, Big Data and wearable technologies establishing a trustful relationship with our devices providing only the informations we’re willing to give it’s possible to create a new enriched experience of our reality. «It’s not about being lost in our devices; it’s about technology receding into the background so that we can engage in human moments» Dr. Helen Papagiannis, AR Stories
- 37. CASE STUDY: Vuzix THEIA The company is engaged in the design, manufacture, marketing and sale of wearable display de- vices. These devices are worn like eyeglasses, they are mainly: our wearable display products are known commercially as Smart Glasses, Video iWear (Eyewear), head mounted displays or HMDs. They are designed to work with mobile electronic devices, including cell phones, laptop computers, tablets, and portable media players and gaming systems. Vuzix’s aim is primarily the consumer markets for gaming and mobile video while many products are also sold in the consumer, industrial, commercial, academic and medical markets. SDK and software providers Customer enterprises
- 38. STRENGHTS _49 patents and 43 additional patents pending and numerous IP licenses in the Video Eyewear field; _Competences in wireless technology innovation awards; _Collaboration with Intel Corporation to accelerate the introduc- tion of the next generation of Vuzix fashion-based wearable dis- play products for the consumer marketplace; _Key technologies including ultra-thin waveguide optics co-developed under license with Nokia, which will form the basis for many of our future products. WEAKNESSES _Negative Net Profit (in general due to low sales and high R&D); _Difficulties in financing activities because of the negative Net Profit. OPPORTUNITIES _Significant Market Opportunity Across Multiple Enterprise Applications (i.e., Industrial Warehousing, Utilities & Power Pharma / Life); _Chance to substitute mobile devices; _Ecosystem of companies through the world; _Growing demand; _Growing economy. THREATS _Competitive market; _Emergent different standards; _Lack of complementary assets (computing power). THEIA CASE STUDY: Vuzix SWOT Analysis
- 39. THEIA CASE STUDY: Vuzix conclusion (I) Analyzing Vuzix revenues from 2011 to 2016 it is noticeable that they decrease by 56%. Moreover, the Net Profit of the company is characterized by a negative value and fluctuating trend. Indeed, the average loss is about $9 million with a peak value of $19 mi- llion in 2016. However, R&D investments register an exponential increasing trend. As a consequence, the Return On Investments is declining over the five years of the analysis. Despite these trends, Intel has been investing in Vuzix from several years considering the high intellectual value of the company due to numerous pa- tents. Based on the data from www.vuzix.com
- 40. THEIA CASE STUDY: Vuzix conclusion (II) In addition, Juniper Research predicts that the market for wearable computing and personal display hardware will exceed $53 billion in 3 years. Assuming that Vuzix captures just 2% of this market, it would mean more than $1 billion in sales (2% share is not much for a market leader with all the patents). Nonetheless, a standard valuation for a tech stock would be 3x sales, which implies a $3 billion valuation, a $150+ share price, and a +1875% return. Based on the data from NASDAQ
- 41. THEIA BUSINESS MODEL CANVAS - Current
- 42. BUSINESS MODEL CANVAS - Future THEIA
- 43. THEIA SOFTWAREHOUSEvsDEVICEPRODUCER _Medium-low starting capital _High availability of skilled software developers _Growing market _Higher flexibility thanks to sharing of the same know-how among VR and AR _Unaffected by standard wars due to ease of adaptation of the product Less risky in terms of investment but medium to low net returns. _High starting capital _Low availability of skilled workforce caused by the unexplored nature of the market _Growing market _Low flexibility of manufacturing and expensive tooling machinery _Risky due to standard wars and the possibility of failure in the case of the emergence of a different prominent product (i.e. Google glasses) More risky in terms of investment, however, higher net returns in case of success (results based on future market prediction study).
- 44. REFERENCES THEIA Dhiraj Amin, Sharvari Govilkar, “Comparative study of augmented reality SDK’s” - Department of Computer Engineering, University of Mumbai, PIIT, New Panvel, India Ronald Azuma, et al. "Recent advances in augmented reality" Computer Graphics and Applications, IEEE 21.6 (2001): 34-47 Mark Billinghurst, Andreas Dünser, Raphaël Grasset, "A Survey of Evaluation Techniques Used in Augmented Reality Studies" - University of Canterbury, 2008 Marco Cantamessa, Francesca Montagna, “Management of innovation and product development: integrating business and technological perspective” - Springer-Verlag London LDD, 2016 Stefan Hen, Ann-Kathrin Hörster, Alexander Karollus "Augmented reality Specialised applications are the key to this fast-growing market for Germany "- Detusche Banck Research Management Ivan E. Sutherland, “A head-mounted three dimensional display”- University of Utah https://app.patentinspiration.com http://augmentedtomorrow.com/ http://www.marxentlabs.com/blog/ http://thearea.org/area-blog/ http://www.govtech.com/ http://www.indexarsolutions.com http://www.ptc-italia.com http://www.metaio.com/